A new global levelized-cost-of-electricity analysis from Wood Mackenzie demonstrates that four-hour battery storage is now cheaper to install than open-cycle gas turbines across all 43 markets where both technologies were modeled. Falling battery and solar capital costs, expanding manufacturing scale - especially in China - and rising gas fuel and capital volatility drive the shift. Single-axis tracker solar is already the lowest-cost new-build in 43 of 48 modeled markets, with onshore wind leading in the remainder. In the most competitive Middle East markets, solar LCOE could drop below $20/MWh by 2033, while four-hour storage in the region is forecast to fall from $120/MWh in 2026 to $80/MWh by 2035, displacing peaking gas on pure cost grounds.
Regional detail underlines why the crossover is global: China’s integrated supply chain makes its storage LCOE more than 55% below the Asia Pacific average, pulling down regional benchmarks; Latin America’s world-class solar resources and mandates for grid storage underpin rapid cost declines; Europe faces near-term cell-price rebounds but long-term carbon and fuel costs make renewables plus storage increasingly dominant; North American costs are pressured by tariffs and policy but tax credits and domestic manufacturing trends support storage competitiveness. Overall, declining battery costs and evolving policy and supply dynamics are redefining system planning and closing the economic case for new gas peakers.
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David Revoy has updated his license to explicitly prohibit AI-generated derivations of his art, stories, and comics due to the difficulty in managing AI-inspired reproductions. He seeks to prevent AI from training on or creating derivative works based on his creative projects, which are licensed under Creative Commons. (davidrevoy.com)
The Journal of Trial and Error is an online publication that shares lessons learned from experimentation and failure across various fields. It aims to promote learning through documented experiences and case studies. (journal.trialanderror.org)
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